Total statistics are as of games
completed June 18th. Contact rates and hit rates are as of games completed June
18th.
Recently I
received a request for a profile of Evan Longoria from a fantasy perspective.
First thing you have to do is make sure not to confuse him with Eva. One is
every guy’s dream right now, the other could be every guy’s dream in a few
years. Longoria has been a pro for parts of three years now and had racked up 950
at bats through Wednesday night. This season has been a slight disappointment
overall, mainly due to his low batting average (.249). He’s currently on pace
to finish with around 540 AB, 27 HR, 85 RBI, and seven steals.
Another
good sign for Longoria so far this year is his walk rate. A hitter that can
command the strike zone and control it can get his pitch when he wants to. Currently,
Longoria is walking 11.1% of the time. But he’s also striking out a lot, nearly
25% of the time. This is causing his contact rate to be lower than you’d like
to see, about 72%. Longoria is working deep into the count as evidenced by the
number of pitches he has been seeing. He is fifth among major league third
basemen in number of pitches (468) seen over the past 30 days. He is seeing 3.97
pitches per plate appearance, which is in the same territory as Prince Fielder (3.97) and Chipper Jones (3.95) over the last
month.
One trend
that is somewhat bothersome is that Longoria’s contact rate has lowered at each
level as he has risen up the professional ranks. He topped out at 83.6% in A
ball in 2006, and finished last year with a combined rate of 77.3% in Triple-A
and Double-A. The same trend is followed by his hit rate decreasing from 35.5%
in Single-A to 34.1% last year to 29.5% this year in the majors.
Much of
this seems to make Longoria look overmatched and underperforming. I disagree
with overmatched part, but he is underperforming. I like players with upside who
are underperforming if they’re not on my team because I can try to snag them at
a discount. Longoria has shown more power in the pros than he ever did in
college, and he’ll get his share of playing time because he’s not a liability
at his position — heck, he played short in college. Bottom line: I like
Longoria. I had him in a keeper league two years ago, but had to let him go. He
will be more successful and as this year goes on, and his average should
improve. All of the other pieces are in place for a very good rookie season.
