FantasyMLBTips

Potential Bargains: Matt Capps

NOTE: In a world of 24-hour sports news with countless sites and magazines devoted to fantasy sports, true “sleepers” no longer exist. Oftentimes sleepers attract so much pre-season hype that they become overvalued on draft day. Potential Bargains are players of value who you should monitor and potentially nab in a trade if the price is right.

Matt Capps, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Age: 24

If you’ve heard it once, you’ve heard it a thousand times: Don’t pay for saves. This philosophy seems to be more and more prevalent every year, and a guy like Matt Capps is exactly why. Capps is someone who probably went in the middle part of your draft and 80-90 picks after Jonathan Papelbon or J.J. Putz — but relative to his draft position, his final ‘08 save total could end up surprising many.

Capps spent a season and a half inexplicably stuck behind Salomon Torres waiting for his save opportunities. Why the Pirates would do this is irrelevant. There are many things the Pirates do that don’t make sense, but that would take up an entirely separate column. What’s important is that Capps has the job now and has the skill set to keep it. In his 163.2 career innings with the Pirates he has a 3.08 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 4:1 — the same ratio he had in the minors. Capps’ ability to not walk batters (only 1.5 walks per 9 innings) is an obvious asset: the fewer the baserunners, the better the chances of preventing the dreaded blown save.

The most common reason some people give for avoiding a guy like Capps is this: “He plays for a bad team, so he won’t get many saves.” The problem with this line of thinking is that — well, it’s simply not true. Take a look at the following numbers:

Even though guys like Papelbon (37 saves), Putz (40), Billy Wagner (34) and Mariano Rivera (30) all closed for teams that won at least 15 more games, the increase in wins simply doesn’t translate into 15 or more saves. Capps may play for a team that has had 15 straight losing seasons, but he’s still going to get someone in your league plenty of saves and he’ll put up second-tier peripheral numbers. His strikeout totals aren’t going to put him on the elite level, but he’s reportedly been working on a change-up this spring that could make him even more effective — as he claims it could be used as one of his best pitches.

If you haven’t yet drafted, do yourself a favor: laugh at what team he plays for, and then draft him anyway. If you’ve already drafted, check out who has him in your league and monitor his progress. If he gets off to a slow start without many save opportunities, make a play for him in a trade midway through April.

BANK ON: 30 saves, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
UPSIDE:  35 saves, 2.75 ERA, WHIP under 1.00

Potential Bargains: Jason Kubel

NOTE: In a world of 24-hour sports news with countless sites and magazines devoted to fantasy sports, true “sleepers” no longer exist. Oftentimes sleepers attract so much pre-season hype that they become overvalued on draft day. Potential Bargains are players of value who you should monitor and snag on draft day provided that the price tag remains reasonable.

Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota Twins, Age: 25

Jason Kubel hasn’t been getting much love in early drafts this year. If you merely take a cursory view at his numbers over the past couple seasons, you can understand why — unless owning a player with Juan Pierre-esque slugging percentage or Fernando Vina-like power numbers (pre- performance enhancers) are your idea of fun. However, when the numbers are analyzed in somewhat greater depth, one can see that a nice little trend is developing with Kubel over this time period:

The numbers show an increase in AVG, OBP, and SLG over each period. Further, taking into account that the number of AB’s for the second half of 2007 are quite a bit lower than the other two periods, one can reasonably assume that having an additional 50-75 AB would further bolster, the R, HR, and RBI numbers.

So, who is the real Jason Kubel? The player that had a paltry .386 SLG in 2006, or the highly touted prospect that drove in seven RBIs against the White Sox last season? If we take a look at his minor league numbers, it seems much more likely that he is coming into his own and fulfilling his potential, rather than a player that had merely been on a hot streak last year. Over 448 minor league games he posted a .320 AVG, .388 OBP, and .499 SLG. This is a fairly substantial sample size and proves that he is a capable major league hitter. Indeed, these numbers align best with his 2007 second half performance. Slowly but surely Kubel has put his serious knee injuries behind him and is poised to have a breakout campaign in 2008.

Currently, Jason Kubel is going very low in a few drafts (rounds 22 - 24 in 12 team leagues) and is not getting drafted at all in most others. He should split time this season between LF and DH, and even with the addition of Delmon Young, Kubel should get plenty of AB’s, as he brings a quality left handed bat to a Minnesota line-up that will struggle to replace the offense left by the departed Torii Hunter.  Take a shot at him late in your draft as a 5th OF and reap the rewards this season from this low-risk flyer.

Bank on:  75 R, 15 HR, 80 RBI, .290 AVG

Upside:  90 R, 22 HR, 95 RBI, .310 AVG

Potential Bargains: Zack Greinke

NOTE: In a world of 24-hour sports news with countless sites and magazines devoted to fantasy sports, true “sleepers” no longer exist. Oftentimes sleepers attract so much pre-season hype that they become overvalued on draft day. Potential Bargains are players of value who you should monitor and snag on draft day provided that the price tag remains reasonable. 

Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals, Age: 24

You’ve all heard of this guy — the Greg Maddux-clone who showed such poise as a 20-year old rookie in 2004, only to have a roller coaster couple of years including a bizarre leave of absence in early 2006. Zack Greinke was called up from the minors in ‘04 and posted phenomenal numbers for a rookie: a sub-4.00 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and close to a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then 2005 hit. And hit hard. The ERA ballooned to 5.80 and the WHIP went north of 1.50 while the K/BB shrunk in half. In 2006, the “personal issues” incident caused a brief hiatus from baseball, and though he returned — all but six innings were spent in the minors. And then of course — last season, Greinke was relegated to bullpen status for the majority of the year. 

So why should you even think about drafting him? Well, for one thing, with former manager Buddy Bell out of the picture, you won’t have to worry about another inane switch to the bullpen. Second, Greinke’s always had the arsenal of an ace: a command pitcher with the ability to spot a slider, curveball, change-up and low-90’s heat all over the strike-zone with ease. Not to mention his consistently solid K/9 rate — averaging over 8 strikeouts per nine innings during his minor league career. Third, this ace-caliber youngster posted strong numbers in ’07 — numbers that largely flew under the radar due to his split between the bullpen and the rotation. All in all, Greinke posted a 3.69 ERA and a 106/36 K/BB ratio in 122 innings for the year, while reeling in rejuvinated fans who had long ago crowned him as a command specialist. Those who need further convincing should take a hard look at his second half numbers (2.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) or his spectacular return to the rotation last September in which he posted a 2.33 ERA and struck out 24 in 27 innings over his last five starts. 

Don’t get us wrong — we do not advocate anchoring your rotation with Zack Greinke. However, he’s a guy who’s going later in drafts who can offer your team valuable numbers. He’ll likely go somewhere between rounds 18-19 in a 12-team leagues, and rounds 22-23 in a 10-team leagues. Now, with two-plus years of experience under his belt and his career back on track, Greinke’s improved maturity and ability to keep his walk numbers down should do wonders for his ERA and WHIP. This could be his breakout year. 

Expectation: 10-12 wins, a 3.75 ERA, a WHIP right around 1.25, and 150 strikeouts
Upside: John Patterson in 2005

Potential Bargains: Jeremy Hermida

NOTE: In a world of 24-hour sports news with countless sites and magazines devoted to fantasy sports, true “sleepers” no longer exist. Oftentimes sleepers attract so much pre-season hype that they become overvalued on draft day. Potential Bargains are players of value who you should monitor and snag on draft day provided that the price tag remains reasonable.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins, Age: 24

Jeremy Hermida is someone you’ve heard of — maybe even been burned by. He was the hot rookie two years ago who was supposed to step into the Marlins lineup and be a five-tool fantasy stud. Then, as so many rookies do, he struggled. Didn’t hit for average. Or power. Or steal bases. So 2007 opened with tempered expectations, especially since he opened the year with an injured knee. Still, some people took another shot on him in the draft, hoping it was just a rookie slump. The first half of the season was much like the 2006 campaign (.231 BA/ .322 OBP/ .422 SLG) and Hermida was all over the waiver wire.  However, the second half of 2007 tells a completely different story.  He had a .340 average, slugged at a .555 clip, and was an on base machine (.401).

So what can we expect from Hermida this year?  Probably somewhere in between.  It’ll be tough to duplicate those second half numbers for a full season, but Hermida has shown loyal backers that he wasn’t such a can’t-miss prospect in ’06 for no reason at all. He’s always been able to get on base, as shown by his .397 OBP in 400 minor league games. He’s also shown evidence of power, posting a .518 SLG in 118 minor league games in 2005 before skipping Triple-A and slugging a ridiculous .634 in 23 major league games. Young hitters take time to develop their power. It’s usually the patience that’s hard to come by, but Hermida already has that. His one noted weakness is hitting against southpaws, but he’s also improved significantly in that area. After slugging .288 versus lefties in 2006, the left-handed hitting Hermida raised his SLG nearly 200 points (.469) in 2007. One thing you shouldn’t expect out of Hermida is steals. He had quite a bit of success in the minors, swiping 61 bags over a three year stretch. That, however, hasn’t translated to the big leagues, where he’s only had 9 steals in 14 attempts.

If you’ve drafted Hermida before, I’m sure you’ll feel like you’re playing with fire— but there’s a lot to like about a patient hitter with line-drive power and a strong contact bat.  Not to mention the fact that he’s likely to hit third and have plenty of chances to drive in a certain, well-known shortstop. Hermida is going somewhere between rounds 13-16 in 12-team leagues, and between 16-19 in 10-team leagues. Bump him up a round to get him as your 4th or 5th outfielder and you could get quite a return. A .300 average, 80 R, 20 HR, and 80 RBI seem like reasonable expectations, with a chance on the over in each of these categories.