2008 Overvalued Second Basemen

NOTE: The following are “potentially overvalued players” who may suffer a regression in 2008. Though their production will still be of value, they are being taken higher in drafts than they should. ADP = Average draft position as of 3/12 from MockDraftCentral

The 2007 season delivered a number of surprising fantasy seasons for many players. Some of these players exceeded expectations by a wide margin — but be careful. If you plan on certain players duplicating or surpassing their ‘07 numbers, you could get burned. I’m not saying that these players should be called “Busts,” but they may be over-drafted or over-priced on draft day. We’ll take a closer look at some of these players over the next couple of weeks. First, we’ll start with the second basemen:

B.J. Upton, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays, Age: 23 ADP: 21

BJ Upton had a breakout campaign in 2007. Many of his owners drafted him late or at a low cost and reaped the benefits of his 5-category performance. He is currently being drafted as a late second-round pick in 12-team leagues. He has been drafted as high as 14th in the last week. Upton has maintained a consistent contact rate in the high 70s to low 80s in his professional career since 2003. Last year, his first full year in the big leagues, he regressed to a 68% contact rate. The thing that allowed him to still hit .300 was his absurd 40% hit rate. From all accounts the ball explodes off of Upton’s bat and he is a dynamic player, but to expect that he will hit .300 again is ludicrous. He will probably settle in somewhere in the .270s, maybe .280s because of his speed and ability to beat out balls that other players may not. Think Ichiro on that note. The homers will still be there, probably mid 20’s, and the steals could improve if he stays healthy, but the average will suffer. On the low side you could see an average in the low .260’s, which doesn’t exactly make for a late second-rounder.

Expectation : 85 R, 25 HR, 95 RBI, 24 SB, .275 AVG

Worst-case : 76 R, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 20 SB, .260 AVG

Brian Roberts, 2B, Baltimore Orioles, Age: 30 ADP: 32

Brian Roberts has always been a speed guy with a little power, but last year he took his speed to a whole new level by stealing 50 bags. He is being drafted as a mid to late third-rounder. He has been drafted as high as 24th, but as low as 44th this week — showing how much the public wavers on his value. We’re not likely to jump on those steals, and thinking he is going to steal 50 bases again is an inexperienced mistake. A similar player, Chone Figgins, is being taken 22 picks later in drafts. Figgins puts up similar average, runs, and RBI to Roberts, with just a handful less home runs, but consistently around 50 steals. Don’t make a mistake drafting Roberts in the third round when you can get Figgins in the fifth or sixth. But if Roberts falls to you later than normal, feel free to pull the trigger — especially if he gets traded. His value could get a slight boost at the top of a potent Cubs offense — but then again, Lou Piniella put the stolen base-shackles on Alfonso Soriano and Derrek Lee last season. Who’s to say he won’t do it as well with Roberts? A trade to the Cubs could see an increase in runs, but a possible decrease in steals.

Expectation : 94 R, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 35 SB, .287 AVG

Worst-case : 85 R, 8, HR, 50 RBI, 28 SB, .279 AVG

Kaz Matsui, 2B, Houston Astros, Age: 32 ADP: 192

Kaz Matsui had a very productive year last season for the Rockies, setting career highs in runs, average and steals. While he has the potential to again help owners in runs and stolen bases,  don’t overvalue him going into this season just because Houston did. The reason why Matsui stole so many bases last year was that he was able to run much more often than in seasons past. If you look at his stolen base opportunity rate (SBO), which measures how often a runner is taking advantage of his opportunities to run, you’ll see the discrepancy. SBO is simply: (SB + CS) / (Singles + BB). If a player swipes 40 bags while getting caught 10 times, and has a combined 150 hits and walks, then his SBO is 33% (50/150=33.3%). Throughout his major league career, Matsui usually ran 13-15% of the time,  but that number jumped to 31% last season. To give you a reference point — baserunners who get the green light generally average 20% or higher.  While owners should expect a drop in Matsui’s SBO this season, it’s possible that he’ll produce 20-plus stolen bases given 500 to 600 AB — just don’t expect a 35-steal season. Think of ’07 as a career year, in a walk year… then think of Jermaine Dye and how he fell off the fantasy map last year.

Expectation: 90 R, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 24 SB, .270 AVG

Worst-case : 77 R, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 15 SB, .261 AVG

 

All of these players are overvalued to a certain degree at this point of Spring Training. Here is a list of those players, their current 12-team, 5x5 mixed league draft values, and some replacement players being drafted at or after them in those same drafts, with corresponding round values.