NOTE: The following are “potentially overvalued players” who may suffer a
regression in 2008. Though their production will still be of value, they are
being taken higher in drafts than they should. ADP = Average draft position as of 3/12 from MockDraftCentral
The 2007
season delivered a number of surprising fantasy seasons for many players. Some
of these players exceeded expectations by a wide margin — but be careful. If
you plan on certain players duplicating or surpassing their ‘07 numbers, you
could get burned. I’m not saying that these players should be called “Busts,”
but they may be over-drafted or over-priced on draft day. We’ll take a closer
look at some of these players over the next couple of weeks. First, we’ll start
with the second basemen:
B.J. Upton,
2B, Tampa Bay Rays, Age: 23 ADP: 21
BJ Upton had
a breakout campaign in 2007. Many of his owners drafted him late or at a low
cost and reaped the benefits of his 5-category performance. He is currently being
drafted as a late second-round pick in 12-team leagues. He has been drafted as
high as 14th in the last week. Upton has maintained a consistent contact rate
in the high 70s to low 80s in his professional career since 2003. Last year,
his first full year in the big leagues, he regressed to a 68% contact rate. The
thing that allowed him to still hit .300 was his absurd 40% hit rate. From all
accounts the ball explodes off of Upton’s bat and he is a dynamic player, but
to expect that he will hit .300 again is ludicrous. He will probably settle in
somewhere in the .270s, maybe .280s because of his speed and ability to beat
out balls that other players may not. Think Ichiro on that note. The homers
will still be there, probably mid 20’s, and the steals could improve if he
stays healthy, but the average will suffer. On the low side you could see an
average in the low .260’s, which doesn’t exactly make for a late second-rounder.
Expectation
: 85 R, 25 HR, 95 RBI, 24 SB, .275 AVG
Worst-case :
76 R, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 20 SB, .260 AVG
Brian
Roberts, 2B, Baltimore Orioles, Age: 30 ADP: 32
Brian
Roberts has always been a speed guy with a little power, but last year he took
his speed to a whole new level by stealing 50 bags. He is being drafted as a
mid to late third-rounder. He has been drafted as high as 24th, but as low as
44th this week — showing how much the public wavers on his value. We’re not
likely to jump on those steals, and thinking he is going to steal 50 bases
again is an inexperienced mistake. A similar player, Chone Figgins, is being taken 22 picks later in
drafts. Figgins puts up similar average, runs, and RBI to Roberts, with just a handful
less home runs, but consistently around 50 steals. Don’t make a mistake
drafting Roberts in the third round when you can get Figgins in the fifth or sixth.
But if Roberts falls to you later than normal, feel free to pull the trigger —
especially if he gets traded. His value could get a slight boost at the top of
a potent Cubs offense — but then again, Lou Piniella put the stolen base-shackles
on Alfonso Soriano and Derrek Lee last season. Who’s to say he
won’t do it as well with Roberts? A trade to the Cubs could see an increase in
runs, but a possible decrease in steals.
Expectation
: 94 R, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 35 SB, .287 AVG
Worst-case :
85 R, 8, HR, 50 RBI, 28 SB, .279 AVG
Kaz Matsui,
2B, Houston Astros, Age: 32 ADP: 192
Kaz Matsui
had a very productive year last season for the Rockies, setting career highs in
runs, average and steals. While he has the potential to again help owners in
runs and stolen bases, don’t overvalue
him going into this season just because Houston did. The reason why Matsui
stole so many bases last year was that he was able to run much more often than
in seasons past. If you look at his stolen base opportunity rate (SBO), which
measures how often a runner is taking advantage of his opportunities to run, you’ll
see the discrepancy. SBO is simply: (SB + CS) / (Singles + BB). If a player swipes
40 bags while getting caught 10 times, and has a combined 150 hits and walks,
then his SBO is 33% (50/150=33.3%). Throughout his major league career, Matsui
usually ran 13-15% of the time, but that
number jumped to 31% last season. To give you a reference point — baserunners
who get the green light generally average 20% or higher. While owners should expect a drop in Matsui’s
SBO this season, it’s possible that he’ll produce 20-plus stolen bases given 500
to 600 AB — just don’t expect a 35-steal season. Think of ’07 as a career year,
in a walk year… then think of Jermaine
Dye and how he fell off the fantasy map last year.
Expectation:
90 R, 5 HR, 41 RBI, 24 SB, .270 AVG
Worst-case :
77 R, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 15 SB, .261 AVG
All of these
players are overvalued to a certain degree at this point of Spring
Training. Here is a list of those
players, their current 12-team, 5x5 mixed league draft values, and some
replacement players being drafted at or after them in those same drafts, with
corresponding round values.
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