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Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played June 2, 2008)

I had to take a little break from the stock report to take care of some other business, but I’m back this week taking a look at some hitters’ performances for the month of May. Some are in the zone and hearing, “May the force be with you,” while others are silently screaming, “Mayday, mayday!” In either case, let’s take a look.

STOCK UP

Lance Berkman OF/1B – HOU : 57 R, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB, .385 AVG in 208 AB
Lance Berkman had a good April with a .303 average and eight homers — but his May has been otherworldly. He hit .471 for the month with nine homers, 22 RBI, 31 runs and even six swipes. Right now this guy has to be your Fantasy MVP. Yahoo! has an interesting list called “Keys to Success” that shows the impact players who appear most often on their top 500 Public League teams, and Berkman is listed as number one on the list with a 50.0 percent ownership. The next player on that list is a distant second at 37.8 percent. Berkman is walking more than he’s striking out this season, and all signs point toward another 40+ homer, 130+ RBI season for him.

Verdict : HOLD

Adam Dunn OF – CIN : 31 R, 15 HR, 39 RBI, 1 SB, .254 AVG in 173 AB
Adam Dunn started off slow this year with only four homers and 10 RBI in April, prompting owners to wonder about selling him. I have him in one league and the number one reason I would have told you not to sell — but rather buy — was that he actually walked more than he struck out in April and that he was due to bust out. Well in May, he did just that. He hit .284 with 10 homers and 25 RBI. Dunn continues to strikeout a lot, but he also walks a lot. The strikeouts are a product of working the count and getting his pitch. With Dunn, you obviously have to deal with his subpar average, but at the end of the year, he’ll have his 35 to 45 homers and 100+ RBI.

Verdict : HOLD

Dan Uggla, 2B – FLA : 43 R, 16 HR, 38 RBI, 2 SB, .297 AVG in 209 AB
Dan Uggla was moved down in the order from the two-hole to the five-spot in April and “responded” in May. He basically went nuts, hitting 12 homers and driving in 26 runs during the month. Add to that 28 runs and a .347 average, and you have a power stud at a premium position. That being said, I’m skeptical that he can keep it up. His 2008 and May contact rates are 71% and 67%, respectively, the same as Adam Dunn’s. The difference here is that while Dunn walks close to the number of times he strikes out, Uggla only walks about one-third of the time he strikes out. Don’t get me wrong — Uggla has legitimate pop… but whenever he goes into a slump and the grounders and line drives stop finding holes… his average will plummet as he doesn’t walk as much. Without those free passes, it’s inevitable that his number of runs scored will suffer as well, especially batting further down the lineup in the five-spot. If you hold onto him, don’t expect a .300 hitter.. and if you can sell him for good value — do it.

Verdict : HOLD or SELL

B.J. Upton 2B/OF – TAM : 32 R, 3 HR, 34 RBI, 17 SB, .305 AVG in 197 AB
B.J. Upton burst onto the MLB and fantasy scene last year with explosive at-bats and awful defense. He finally settled in as a center fielder last year, a role that he continues to have a stranglehold on this season. After hitting 24 homers and stealing 22 bases in 2007, Upton was viewed highly coming into 2008, many seeing him as a 30/30 candidate. This year, the power hasn’t been there (only three homers so far, none in May), but his speed has improved dramatically. He stole 101 bases combined in 2005 and 2006, in AAA and for Tampa Bay, so the blazing speed is nothing new. He had never really shown power like he did last year at any point in his professional career, topping out at 18 homers in 2005 in AAA, so it was a surprise to most fantasy pundits last season when he hit those 24 homers. I’d still expect him to get close to 20 homers — and at this point, after his 13 steals in May, he could possibly top 40 steals. Tampa has always been an aggressive, running team — and that definitely plays into Upton’s strengths.

Verdict : HOLD

 

STOCK DOWN

Prince Fielder 1B – MIL : 29 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG in 207 AB
Prince Fielder changed to a vegetarian diet this offseason, and so far the only thing that has gotten thinner is his power output. He had a good month from an average point of view, .294, but his power has been actually below average for his position. Prince ranks 14th among 1B in homers, and is tied for 39th among all fantasy players. This is mysterious and troubling, and reminds me of the movie “Space Jam” when aliens took the hoops skills from ballers such as Muggsy Bogues and Larry Johnson. You’ve got to hope that Prince gets back on track, and I obviously do since I own him in two leagues. Three homers in the last four games is a start.

Verdict : HOLD

Alex Rios OF – TOR : 30 R, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 12 SB, .262 AVG in 233 AB
Alex Rios makes another appearance on the Down list in 2008, as he’s really struggled without Vernon Wells (injury) and Frank Thomas (released) in the Toronto lineup. In May he hit only .231, dropping his average 43 points from the end of April. He hit only one homer, and has only three on the year, after hitting 24 last season. Rios also drove in just nine runs and scored only 13. The lone bright spot is that he stole another six bases, putting him on pace to swipe close to 35 on the season. You can’t get full value for him at this point, but unless he’s hiding an injury, he should rebound.

Verdict : BUY 

Nick Markakis OF - BAL: 29 R, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 7 SB, .263 AVG in 205 AB
Nick Markakis was set to languish in Baltimore this year, being on a bad team that had zero chance of winning the AL East. He was supposed to be the lone bright spot on a dreadful team from a fantasy perspective. But Markakis hasn’t had a great start to 2008 and May was no exception. He hit five homers with 13 RBI and stole a single base. That, and his .231 batting average, is all something he’d probably like to forget. But never fear, the second half is almost here. In 556 second half at-bats over the last two seasons, Markakis has hit .318 with 94 runs, 28 homers, 102 RBI and 10 steals. I just bought low on him, and you should do the same if you can. When the weather heats up, so will Markakis.

Verdict : BUY 

Justin Upton OF – ARI : 32 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 1 SB, .275 AVG in 193 AB
Justin Upton, younger brother of B.J., had a great start to the year, hitting .346 in April. May, however, was not so nice. His hit rate stayed high at 36%, similar to his brother’s. But he had an absurdly low 55% contact rate, striking out 40 times in 88 at-bats. He had only three homers and 12 RBI to go along with a .216 batting average. You’ll have to deal with the ups and downs of a young hitter — and while the downs may be really low like in May, the ups can be very high. See how he does when the weather heats up.

Verdict : HOLD

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played May 12, 2008)

STOCK UP 

Cristian Guzman SS – WAS : 26 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG in 165 AB
Cristian Guzman has been up and down in his career — more down than up over the last few years. But things seem to have turned around for this former triples specialist. His fortune seems to have shifted in ‘08 as evidenced by that first pitch broken bat single by Guzman to start off the season. Who knows — maybe it’s that ’06 Lasik surgery finally paying off. Regardless of the source, something is working. In ten games this May, Guzman is 15-for-46 (.326 BA) with ten runs scored and eight RBI. The one stolen base is a bit concerning, but few people  expect him to return to the 25-SB days; owners are simply happy that Guzman is back from the dead and suddenly fantasy-relevant once again.
Verdict : BUY

Juan Pierre OF – LAD : 10 R, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 13 SB, .281 AVG in 89 AB
Juan Pierre has seen increased playing time with the disappointment that is Andruw Jones. In ten games this May, Pierre is 12-for-37 (.324 BA) with seven runs scored and seven stolen bases. After plenty of owners dropped him after his lack of playing time in early April, Pierre is suddenly on pace to once again reach the 50-SB plateau. As long as you know when to start him and when to bench him, he’ll remain a valuable fantasy player for your team. Sure it takes a little more work on your part to monitor the Dodgers’ lineup status, but it’s work that can easily pay off.
Verdict : BUY

Placido Polanco, 2B – DET : 18 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG in 119 AB
Three weeks ago, Placido Polanco had a pathetic .140 average as he struggled with early season injury troubles. He was available on many a waiver wire, unfairly and unjustly. Good hitters in slumps eventually start hitting, and they generally reach the numbers on the back of their baseball cards. If you were one of the owners fortunate enough to snag Polanco a few weeks ago when he was coming back from his injury, you’ve obviously reaped the benefits. Since that time he is 25-for-41 (.410 BA) with two homers and two steals. He isn’t going to fill up the stat line and he’s probably one of those “better in real life than in fantasy” players, but if you need average, runs, some RBI and a few steals… he’s not a bad pickup.
Verdict : BUY

Kevin Youkilis 1B /3B- BOS: 27 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 2 SB, .322 AVG in 146 AB
First off, let me say that I cannot stand Kevin Youkilis. This might have something to do with my being a Yankees fan and Youkilis playing for the Sox. That aside, I do recognize good ballplayers and talent. Youkilis has been playing well this year and has shown a power stroke of late. Over the last seven days, Youkilis has four homers and eight RBI in 28 at bats. He’s even thrown in a stolen base as a sign of goodwill. This season, the Greek God of Walks is on pace for 33 HR and 125 RBI, both of which would be career highs. While he probably won’t reach those numbers, there’s a good change that Youk owners may be in for a career year. Look for him to keep producing.
Verdict : BUY
 

STOCK DOWN

Eric Byrnes OF – ARI : 22 R, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 4 SB, .226 AVG in 146 AB
Eric Byrnes had a career year in the last year of his contract. That’s no surprise. The fact that he is hitting .226 is a little bit of a surprise. Byrnes has never been a guy who tears up the stat sheet in batting average, but that isn’t his game either. This past week he’s just 3-for-22 with two runs, zero RBI, and one stolen base. The fact that he’s actually underperforming by so much makes him a buy low candidate. He’ll have some catching up to do, but batting smack in the middle of the best offense in baseball should help.
Verdict : BUY

Alex Rios OF – TOR : 20 R, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 8 SB, .270 AVG in 152 AB
Alex Rios, of Fantasyland fame, has had a solid start to the year. He’s underperforming in average and power, but the steals make up for it a bit. Last year he struck out 103 times in 643 at bats, or at a rate of 16 percent. This season he has struck out 37 times in 152 at bats, or at a rate of 24.3 percent. This is concerning — Rios is too good of a hitter to be striking out this much. He’s had some great at bats this season, and he should really be making bettter contact. This past week, he struck out nine times in 33 at bats. When he starts to make better contact, his numbers will start to take off. Not only will he  still be running, but he’ll be pounding the ball as well.
Verdict : HOLD 

Orlando Cabrera 2B - CWS: 22 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 5 SB, .230 AVG in 148 AB
Chicago has had a tough time scoring runs this season. The offense has struggled, and so has their new shortstop, Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera is only hitting .230 after a plus .300 season last year. Expect this slump to end soon, as he started off slowly last year as well — on May 10th of last year, Cabrera was sitting on a .258 average. A positive sign for Cabrera owners is that this year’s 89% contact rate is consistent with his 90% rate from last year. He also had a 33.4% hit rate last year, which is down to 25.9% this year. That will all normalize and the average will spike. Get him at a discount if you can.
Verdict : BUY 

Jeff Clement DH/C – SEA : 3 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .162 AVG in 37 AB
Jeff Clement was called up by Seattle in part to help jumpstart an anemic offense. That hasn’t happened. The hyped rookie has had 37 at bats this season and has struck out a whopping 16 times. After getting a hit in his first major league at bat he has gone 5-for-36. Owners in deeper leagues should remain patient. He’s a good hitter who could get things going in the near future. Hey, it can’t get any worse.
Verdict : HOLD 

 

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played May 5, 2008) 

This is a different look at the Stock Report this week. I am looking at some recently DLed players as well as some players coming off the DL or just recently called up.

STOCK UP 

Wladimir Balentien, OF – SEA : 2 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG in 21 AB
Wladimir Balentien was Adam Jones’ running partner in the minors last year and with Jones’ trade to Baltimore they won’t have to fight for a spot in the Seattle OF. He has been a swing and miss guy in the past, not walking much and striking out a lot. The good news is that he’s lowered his Ks from 160 in 2005, to 140 in ’06, down to 105 last year. This year he had six homers and 20 RBI in 63 Triple-A at bats. He’s got five hits in 21 at bats to start this season with Seattle, but two of those hits have been three run shots — including one off of the untouchable Cliff Lee. He’s also increased his steals in the minors the last three years from 9, to 14, to 15. Take a shot at Balentien in all leagues, especially AL-only because he will play nearly everyday with Brad Wilkerson no longer on the team.

Verdict : BUY

Jeff Clement DH/C – SEA : 1 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .176 AVG in 17 AB
Jeff Clement is the other of the Seattle call ups this week that should be looking to make a splash early in 2008. He is eligible at catcher in some leagues, but not all. He should gain catcher eligibility soon if he is not eligible in your league. He’s had a rough first week, but he’s a must have in AL-only leagues, and he should be mixed league viable as well. He will back up Kenji Johjima and get ABs at DH as well. This setup should make him more productive than that other young catcher recently called up (Jarrod Saltalamacchia) because he’ll be getting regular playing time. He hit 20 homers and drove in 80 runs last year in AAA, and he was hitting nearly .400 this year before getting called up.

Verdict : BUY

Curtis Granderson OF – DET : 13 R, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 1 SB, .311 AVG in 45 AB
Curtis Granderson sure didn’t waste any time getting going this year did he. After 45 AB he has scored 13 runs, hit five homers, driven in nine, and stolen a base. Don’t worry about the lack of stolen bases. He’ll get the speed going. The encouraging thing for Granderson owners this year is that Graderson has walked ten times and only struck out six. He has shown good discipline and bat control so far this season.

Verdict : HOLD 

Shane Victorino OF – PHI : 9 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, .243 AVG in 70 AB
Shane Victorino came off the disabled list Tuesday amid rumors that he may have to fight for playing time. He pinch hit in the first two games back and has started the last five games. Don’t worry about his playing time. You really think that the Phillies will sit him down to play Geoff Jenkins? Victorino is 6-for-23 with five runs and a steal since coming back. It was a good sign that he stole a base so soon after coming back to the lineup.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY
 

STOCK DOWN

Alex Rodiriguez 3B - NYY : 14 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, .286 AVG in 91 AB
Alex Rodriguez was the consensus number one pick in fantasy leagues this year. He was also placed on the disabled list earlier this week. ESPN’s Stephania Bell said on the "ESPNEWS Fantasy Insider" show that Rodriguez could be out until the All-Star break. Her bandwagoning colleague, Matthew Berry, also doesn’t expect A-Rod to play before the All-Star break. But I don’t buy it. Berry is notorious for saying crazy stuff so that he can claim to have “called” something correctly when it happens — but most of the time it doesn't. While A-Rod may be out a little longer than his 15-day DL stint, don’t panic to replace him and destroy your season in the process. Expect him to miss at most just one month, since Grade 2 strains can be a month-long thing. He should come back like a ball of fire looking to make up for lost time.

Verdict : HOLD

Jimmy Rollins SS – PHI : 8 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, .308 AVG in 39 AB
Jimmy Rollins sprained his ankle on April 8th against the Mets and was day to day. He missed a game, pinch hit on the 10th, and was supposed to be back after the weekend. Then he was out of the lineup and pinch hit a few more times, the last of which came on April 19th. This was a poorly handled injury. If the Phils had simply placed him on the DL right away, he might’ve been doing his five-category thing as early as last week. As it is now, he’s expected to come off the DL this Thursday. Get him back in the lineup as soon as you can.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY

Troy Tulowitzki SS - COL: 10 R, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, .152 AVG in 105 AB
“Troy Tulowitzki might have been last year’s rookie of the year if the voters took defense into account. He is a great defender with a terrific arm. This season he’s only hitting .172 in 93 AB with one homer, Wednesday night. He’s got an 83% contact rate but a hit rate slightly below 20%. This should improve greatly this season, as it was 34% last season. He should end up somewhere around .280 with solid power and a decent number of steals. You just hope he doesn’t cross the line from slow start to bad season.” 

That was the paragraph that was supposed to be in last week’s article. Since then Tulo has been diagnosed with a torn quad and is out a lot longer than originally expected. According to his agent, “with the help of God [Tulo] will be back in two months” — but we know how credible agents are. If you’re in a keeper league you have to hold on to him. If it’s a yearly league you’ve got a tough decision. DL him if you can, but if you can’t, you have to be honest about a replacement and about being able to survive with him on your bench.

Verdict : HOLD or SELL 

Josh Willingham OF - FLA: 16 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, .341 AVG in 91 AB
Josh Willingham was having a great start and looked like he was on his way to a breakout campaign with six early season homers and a .341 batting average. He was placed on the DL Friday with a back injury — yes, the same dreaded back injury that plagued him towards the end of last season. If you need the roster spot you can dump him, but DL him if you can. Backs can be iffy, so if you can sell him when he comes back,  do it. Let the risk be someone else’s problem.

Verdict : HOLD or SELL

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played April 17, 2008) 

STOCK UP 

Raul Ibanez : 12 R, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 62 AB
Raul Ibanez is one of those guys who nobody really targets outside of AL-only leagues, but always finishes with valuable numbers at the end of the year. Over the past week he’s hitting .452 with three homers and 12 RBI. It looks like he’ll once again be that under-the-radar contributor who puts up 25 HR and 100 RBI. If you can get a desperate owner —­ maybe someone who owns a couple of injured outfielders and loves the consistency that Ibanez brings — to buy him from you for a higher upside youngster, then you’ve got to consider it. More than likely though, you’ll find yourself holding onto Ibanez because he lacks that “sexy” fantasy appeal. Pat yourself on the back and realize there’s nothing wrong with that move. 

Verdict : HOLD

Ian Kinsler : 10 R, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB, .297 AVG in 64 AB
Ian Kinsler was a popular sleeper going into last season and he started off with a sizzling nine homers and four steals last April, before being slowed down by injuries — ultimately missing almost all of July. This season he hasn’t homered yet, but has stolen five bases, including four in the last week. In fact, he’s stolen 28 bases in 30 attempts since the beginning of 2007. Hitting leadoff should help Kinsler score a ton of runs in an underrated Texas lineup. He already has a 20/20 season under his belt, and 25/30 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. He could be a fantasy stud by the end of the season.

Verdict : HOLD 

Casey Kotchman : 8 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB, .339 AVG in 62 AB
Casey Kotchman has had some tough times over the past two season really cementing himself into the first baseman spot with the Angels. He spent most of 2006 out with mono, and last year he only had 443 at bats. This season, he’s off to a good start — and that will go a long way towards making him a mainstay at 1B. Kotchman has been hot this week, hitting two homers with 10 RBI, and his solid play should continue. He won’t hit .339 all season long, but he’s still a good hitter. He’s hit at every level of the minors and last year he had a .330 average after his first 60 games before getting sidelined with a concussion. Kotchman ownders could easily see 20 homers and 90+ RBI in 2008.

Verdict : BUY or HOLD 

Manny Ramirez : 13 R, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 67 AB
If you want Manny Ramirez to get hot, just tell him that the Yankees are next up on the schedule. And if you want him to be on pace for a 250-HR season, let him hit against Mike Mussina every game (he’s hit three bombs off of Mussina in two games this year). Manny leads the majors with 18 RBI (tied with Joe Crede), thanks in large part to the 10 runs he drove in this past week. Toss in his four homers and a .444 average and you probably won’t find a hotter player. It looks like his “maniacal workout warrior” offseason experience is clearly helping him put to bed those rumors that he’s on the downward side of his career and past his prime. Manny can hit, and will hit, as long as he’s  motivated.

Verdict : HOLD
 

STOCK DOWN

Robinson Cano : 2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .167 AVG in 66 AB
Robinson Cano has always been a free swinger who doesn’t strike out often, but also doesn’t walk much because he doesn’t go deep into counts. His ability to make contact (89% contact rate the past week) is usually an asset, but it could very well be the thing hampering his early season performance. You see, it seems that Cano is making “weak” contact with a lot of pitcher’s pitches and making outs on them — rather than missing them, and possibly getting a better pitch to hit later in the at bat. His approach has been awful so far and he’s swinging at a lot of first pitches. His only homer came in a pinch hitting appearance against the Rays earlier this week. Cano has been a slow starter in the past, so those who drafted him should be patient with him and hope that he’ll right the ship a little earlier this year.

Verdict : HOLD, BUY low if you can

Todd Helton : 8 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .242 AVG in 62AB
Todd Helton is hitting only .107 over the past week, and when average is your game — that means that your game sucks. Helton isn’t going to hit for much power anymore, even with half of his games in Colorado. He’s had zero extra base hits over the last week, and his .353 average of just over a week ago has plummetted over a 100 points. Still, given Helton’s track record, he’ll figure it out and pull himself together soon. In fact, there are good signs in his performance as well. He is walking 12.5% of the time and he continues to walk more than he strikes out. When the Rockies’ lineup gets rolling, Helton will be a part of it.

Verdict : HOLD

David Ortiz : 8 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, .111 AVG in 63 AB
Is it bad luck or ill effects from offseason surgery that is keeping David “Big Papi” Ortiz from performing so far this season? Maybe he isn’t eating his rice and beans and mango salsa. A disturbing coincidence from the past week is that his batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage are all the same. He’s only hit singles and hasn’t taken a walk in the past seven days. He could be pressing, but what if it’s Mo Vaughn-like warning signs? People forget that Mo Vaughn hit 36 HR and 117 RBI in his last full season of baseball, only to be left home on the couch two seasons later. Ortiz isn’t as hefty as Vaugn was, but he isn’t a young man anymore and who knows — maybe he shared Miguel Tejada’s sentiment and didn’t like celebrating birthdays as a little kid. Bottom line is this: you can’t trade him since you’d get pennies on the dollar. Unless he’s dealing with a new undisclosed injury, he will break out — it’s only a matter of when, and when he does, you’ll enjoy the gaudy numbers.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY low

Michael Young: 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, .234 AVG in 64 AB
Michael Young started slow last year as well, only to rebound and put up a solid season. However, the warning signs are there for a fall from grace. Young’s runs, hits, homers and walks have all decreased each of the past three seasons, and last year was the first since 2002 that he didn’t hit double digit homers. His steals have increased each of the past three years so that adds to his value, but not enough to make up for the fact that he may only hit 10 homers and drive in 80. He’s not the fantasy stud he used to be and was probably overvalued on draft day.

Verdict : SELL if you can get fair value for him

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your  rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies.

(Statistics are current as of games played April 11, 2008) 

STOCK UP
 
Chone Figgins :  6 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 SB, .395 AVG in 38 AB
Chone Figgins is coming out of the gate smokin’ this year. He’s not leading the league in runs and he’s only 4-for-7 in steal attempts, but he is hitting .395 in the early going — which is significantly better than the .160 average he had last season after the first two months. Obviously he isn’t going to keep up this average, but he’ll hit over .300 and steal a ton of bases. The only thing that bothers me is that he’s been caught stealing three times so far, and his 57.1% stolen base rate is typically 20 points higher. Keep an eye on his SB% because his value is tied to steals — if he’s less successful in that area, it could be a sign of aging or injury. 

Verdict : HOLD

Carlos Gomez :  6 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 SB, .326 AVG in 43 AB
Carlos Gomez was the main prospect the Mets gave up in their “we’ll give you all our crap for your stud” trade this past offseason. Jose Reyes supposedly said that Gomez was faster than him, and while that doesn’t necessarily translate to steals, it does translate in steals potential. In 1,070 minor league at bats since the 2005 season, Gomez stole 124 bases, or an average of 62 SB in 535 AB. So far, in 168 major league at bats, he’s stolen 17 bases, which projects to 54 SB in 535 AB. Simply put — the guy can flat out steal. 

While Gomez has already swiped five bags this year, the key to his continued success depends on whether or not he remains in the leadoff spot for the rest of the season. His contact rate is only 74% with an abnormally high hit rate of over 43.8%. He simply has to get on base (see Joey Gathright) in order to steal bases, and when the batting average normalizes… those opportunities will dry up. Gomez has walked less than 5% of the time this year; the average rate is about 10%. The math is simple: if you’re not on base, you can’t steal. Yes, he should still be good for at least 35–40 SB this year, but some people are expecting 50-plus.

Verdict : SELL if not in AL only 

Jeff Keppinger :  7 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, .310 AVG in 42 AB
Jeff Keppinger has started off strong and simply needs the opportunity of consistent playing time to show off his fantasy value. He’s a career .309 hitter in 459 major league at bats, and he hit .321 in over 2000 minor league at bats — so his .310 average is no fluke. The best part about Keppinger has to be his contact rate. Last season he had a ridiculous 95% contact rate by striking out only 12 times in 241 AB; this season he’s managed to maintain that same contact rate by whiffing only twice in 42 AB. He’s in a great ballpark with a good lineup so that bodes well for him. Alex Gonzalez shouldn’t hold him back, but who knows with Dusty Baker as the manager. Keppinger is still available in a good number of leagues, so if you need to fill a MI spot or if your starting SS is Bobby Crosby, then give him a chance — you’ll probably end up keeping him.

Verdict : BUY 

Nate McLouth : 7 R, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .396 AVG in 48 AB
Nate McLouth is a favorite of some here at TIPS. He came into the season looking like a guy who could be a 20/20 or 20/30 player. He has started off extremely hot and already has 10 RBI. He’s hitting .396 with a homer and two steals. Even better is that he’s only struck out five times in 48 AB for a 90% contact rate. Many of times you’ll see a guy who’s playing out of this world, only to come crashing back down to earth as summer nears. But every now and then, there’ll be a Shane Victorino or Eric Byrnes who keeps it up all season long. Find a McLouth owner who doesn’t see the latter coming and strike a deal.

Verdict : BUY; HOLD if you have him

 

STOCK DOWN

Carl Crawford : 10 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 SB, .222 AVG in 45 AB
Carl Crawford has started out pretty slow with only 10 hits in the early going. He has a very good contact rate (91%) and a low hit rate (24.4%), so there’s no reason to worry about that .222 average. The one thing that does worry me about Crawford is that all 10 of his hits have been singles — he hasn’t had a extra base hit all season. People have been waiting for years for Crawford to become a 20-HR hitter — but last season’s 11 homers and .466 slugging percentage ended a streak of three consecutive years of increased power numbers. But folks, remember — this is a guy who’s only 26-years old right now and who won’t turn 27 until August. People think of him as an older guy because this is his 7th season, but he’s still a young guy who hasn’t even reached his prime. In fact, last season marked the 5th consecutive season that he’s increased both his average and on base percentage. I wouldn’t be shocked if this is the year Crawford finally reaches the 20-HR plateau. He’ll get back to the 100-runs plateau and his 50 SB will be there as well.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t

Hunter Pence : 4 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, .196 AVG in 46 AB
Hunter Pence has been struggling this year. He is hitting only .196 and has struck out 11 times while walking only once. Last year he struck out 110 times in 551 combined at bats in Triple-A and the majors, so he’s no stranger to whiffing. What’s strange is that he’s simply not getting base hits this year after hitting well over .300 last season. His removal from the two-hole to the seven-hole could be the first step in what could become a sophomore slump. Nonetheless, I’d hold onto him since he’s shown the ability to put up good numbers despite his poor strikeout-to-walk ratios, and you simply can’t sell him while his value is this low.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him

Alfonso Soriano : 6 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB, .170 AVG in 47 AB
Alfonso Soriano has struggled out of the gate this year and is now 34 years-old. While I don’t believe his age will significantly affect his play overall, speed does tend to be a skill of the young. Soriano should still steal 20 to 30 bases, but the days of 40-plus are long gone. This season, his 77% contact rate is right around his career average, but his hit rate (17.6%) is well below his career rate of 31%. Those balls in play will start to fall and his average will come up —and for those wondering, so will the homers. The main cause of Soriano’s slow start was that instead of batting leadoff, he was batting in the two-hole where he has a career line of .125/.125/.200. If a trade for Brian Roberts is made, Soriano could possibly move down in the lineup, where he would see a significant increase in RBI opportunities. The 100-RBI plateau isn’t out of the question for him (he’s reached that twice before in his career), so Soriano owners should definitely be crossing their fingers for a BR trade.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t 

Mark Teixeira : 6 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .179 AVG in 39 AB
Mark Teixiera is a good news, bad news player right now. I’ll give you the bad news first. He is hitting .179 and has scored only six runs while driving in five. The good news is this: he always starts off slow… and he always eventually gets it going. Take a look at these numbers: 

April 2007: 21/94, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, .231/.346/.341
May 2007: 38/109, 11 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .349/.438/.661 

Career in April: 103/415, 22 2B, 17 HR, 52 RBI, .248/.346/.434
Career in May: 140/479, 37 2B, 23 HR, 86 RBI, .292/.375/.526 

In fact, one could argue that Teixeira is actually having a “relatively” good April.  He currently has an 87% contact rate which shows that he is putting the bat on the ball. He also has a low 15.6% hit rate which shows some bad luck. When that hit rate normalizes so will Tex’s numbers. The homers are already there, prorated. The runs and RBI will come, and so will the AVG and OBP. If you have him, don’t worry. If you don’t, go get him from a disgruntled owner.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t